California
Population 2015-2030
Los
Angeles County Projections
All the numbers are projections made by the State
Department of Finance. I have no idea
how accurate they will be. The source is
Table P-2 from
http://www.dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/Demographics/projections/
See the two tables at the end of this discussion for
details.
Note that Los Angeles County is (or by about 2017 will
be) majority Hispanic.
By age
1. The
population from ages 0-19 and 20-64 will be essentially constant. The population ages 65+ will increase by
about 65% (!!), with the 65+ fraction of the population increasing from about
13% to 19%. That is, the increase in
population is due to the large increase in the number of seniors.
2. By age and
race
All ages:
The overall population will increase by about 8%. The population of Whites will decline by
about 10%. The population of Asians and
Hispanics will increase, with most of the population increase due to the
increase in the Hispanic population.
Ages 0-19 – children:
The total population in this age range will change
insignificantly.
Ages 20-64 – working ages:
The total population in this age group will be
essentially unchanged, perhaps resulting in labor shortages as the economy
expands. The number of Whites and Asians
will decline significantly (-22% and -11%, respectively). The number of Hispanics will increase
significantly (by about 400,000, or about 13%).
An obvious major challenge will be to better incorporate Hispanics into
the developing high-tech, high-skills, high-education economy. Also see the figures for Riverside County,
which is predicted to have a large increase in the working-age population. If Riverside County cannot increase its job
supply enough to accommodate these workers, they will be likely to commute to
jobs in Los Angeles and Orange Counties.
Ages 65+ – seniors:
There will be an enormous (65%!!) increase in the
population of seniors. If there is a
developing labor shortage, finding methods of keeping seniors at least
partially in the work force (part-time work, phased retirement, etc.) is
another major challenge and opportunity.
Projected Los Angeles County
Population Change 2015 to 2030 – by Age
|
|||||||
Source: California Department of Finance
|
|||||||
http://www.dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/Demographics/projections/
|
|||||||
Extracted from file P-2
|
|||||||
Age Range
|
|||||||
2015
|
2030
|
Change
|
%Change
|
||||
Total
|
10,147,070
|
10,930,986
|
783,916
|
8
|
|||
0-4
|
664,168
|
634,863
|
-29,305
|
-4
|
|||
5-9
|
641,563
|
665,761
|
24,198
|
4
|
|||
10-14
|
625,574
|
677,835
|
52,261
|
8
|
|||
15-19
|
670,120
|
657,841
|
-12,279
|
-2
|
|||
20-24
|
748,352
|
634,474
|
-113,878
|
-15
|
|||
25-29
|
757,871
|
617,498
|
-140,373
|
-19
|
|||
30-34
|
762,783
|
669,898
|
-92,885
|
-12
|
|||
35-39
|
714,654
|
758,685
|
44,031
|
6
|
|||
40-44
|
701,465
|
760,886
|
59,421
|
8
|
|||
45-49
|
702,467
|
748,261
|
45,794
|
7
|
|||
50-54
|
688,398
|
685,861
|
-2,537
|
0
|
|||
55-59
|
643,575
|
658,830
|
15,255
|
2
|
|||
60-64
|
541,406
|
643,795
|
102,389
|
19
|
|||
65-69
|
430,197
|
608,392
|
178,195
|
41
|
|||
70-74
|
298,787
|
539,084
|
240,297
|
80
|
|||
75-79
|
216,517
|
418,065
|
201,548
|
93
|
|||
80-84
|
157,268
|
290,199
|
132,931
|
85
|
|||
85-89
|
108,471
|
156,819
|
48,348
|
45
|
|||
90-94
|
55,788
|
72,972
|
17,184
|
31
|
|||
95-99
|
15,386
|
25,309
|
9,923
|
64
|
|||
100+
|
2,260
|
5,658
|
3,398
|
150
|
|||
Median
|
36.3
|
41.0
|
4.6
|
||||
% of 2015
|
% of 2030
|
% of Total
|
|||||
Population
|
Population
|
Change
|
|||||
0-19
|
2,601,425
|
26
|
2,636,300
|
24
|
34,875
|
1
|
4
|
20-64
|
6,260,971
|
62
|
6,178,188
|
57
|
-82,783
|
-1
|
-11
|
65+
|
1,284,674
|
13
|
2,116,498
|
19
|
831,824
|
65
|
106
|
Total
|
10,147,070
|
10,930,986
|
783,916
|
||||
Projected Los Angeles County Population
Change 2015 to 2030 – by Age and Race
|
|||||||
Source: California Department of Finance
|
|||||||
http://www.dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/Demographics/projections/
|
|||||||
Extracted from file P-2
|
|||||||
2015
|
2030
|
Change
|
%Change |
% of Total
|
|||
% of 2015
|
% of 2030
|
|
Change | ||||
Population
|
Population
|
||||||
Total
|
10,147,070
|
10,930,986
|
783,916
|
8
|
|||
White
|
2,677,368
|
26
|
2,449,091
|
22
|
-228,277
|
-9
|
-29
|
Black
|
834,505
|
8
|
825,823
|
8
|
-8,682
|
-1
|
-1
|
Asian
|
1,387,891
|
14
|
1,496,672
|
14
|
108,781
|
8
|
14
|
Hispanic
|
5,001,012
|
49
|
5,848,259
|
54
|
847,247
|
17
|
108
|
Two Or More
|
202,919
|
2
|
267,255
|
2
|
64,336
|
32
|
8
|
Amer Indian
|
19,654
|
0
|
18,803
|
0
|
-851
|
-4
|
0
|
Hawaii/Pacific
|
23,721
|
0
|
25,083
|
0
|
1,362
|
6
|
0
|
Ages 0-19
|
|||||||
Total
|
2,601,425
|
2,636,300
|
34,875
|
1
|
|||
White
|
442,213
|
425,457
|
-16,756
|
-4
|
|||
Black
|
196,355
|
175,173
|
-21,182
|
-11
|
|||
Asian
|
267,927
|
312,057
|
44,130
|
16
|
|||
Hispanic
|
1,603,655
|
1,613,626
|
9,971
|
1
|
|||
Two Or More
|
81,414
|
101,153
|
19,739
|
24
|
|||
Amer Indian
|
3,612
|
2,958
|
-654
|
-18
|
|||
Hawaii/Pacific
|
6,249
|
5,876
|
-373
|
-6
|
|||
Ages 20-64
|
|||||||
Total
|
6,260,971
|
6,178,188
|
-82,783
|
-1
|
|||
White
|
1,689,420
|
1,317,106
|
-372,314
|
-22
|
|||
Black
|
521,966
|
472,248
|
-49,718
|
-10
|
|||
Asian
|
889,049
|
792,889
|
-96,160
|
-11
|
|||
Hispanic
|
3,026,258
|
3,433,081
|
406,823
|
13
|
|||
Two Or More
|
106,022
|
136,925
|
30,903
|
29
|
|||
Amer Indian
|
12,989
|
10,595
|
-2,394
|
-18
|
|||
Hawaii/Pacific
|
15,267
|
15,344
|
77
|
1
|
|||
Ages 65+
|
|||||||
Total
|
1,284,674
|
2,116,498
|
831,824
|
65
|
|||
White
|
545,735
|
706,528
|
160,793
|
29
|
|||
Black
|
116,184
|
178,402
|
62,218
|
54
|
|||
Asian
|
230,915
|
391,726
|
160,811
|
70
|
|||
Hispanic
|
371,099
|
801,552
|
430,453
|
116
|
|||
Two Or More
|
15,483
|
29,177
|
13,694
|
88
|
|||
Amer Indian
|
3,053
|
5,250
|
2,197
|
72
|
|||
Hawaii/Pacific
|
2,205
|
3,863
|
1,658
|
75
|
|||
