California
Population 2015-2030
Statewide
Projections
All the numbers are projections made by the State
Department of Finance. I have no idea
how accurate they will be. The source is
Table P-2 from
http://www.dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/Demographics/projections/
See the two tables at the end of this discussion for
details.
1. By age
The population from ages 0-19 and 20-64 will each
increase by about 5%. The population
ages 65+ will increase by about 66% (!!), with the 65+ fraction of the overall
population increasing from 13% to 20%.
So increases in traffic in the next 10-15 years will be mainly caused by
seniors going to doctor’s appointments, early-bird dinners, and bingo games!
2. By race and
age
All ages:
The overall population will increase by about
13%. The population of Whites will
decline slightly. The major change will
be the continuing increase in the Hispanic population, which will increase by
about 25%, representing 73% of the total change in population.
Ages 0-19 – children:
The total population in this age range will increase
by about 5%, with Hispanics accounting for about 60% of this increase. The
Asian and multi-racial population in this age range will also increase
significantly. The population of Whites and Blacks in this age range will
decrease slightly.
Ages 20-64 – working ages:
Note: Some
people 19 or younger are in the work force, as are some people older than
65. On the other hand, some people 20 or
older are still in school, and some people younger than 65 are retired. Using ages 20-64 as the working-age
population is a reasonable first cut.
The population in this age range will increase by
about 5%, with the population of Whites decreasing by about 15%, and the
population of Hispanics increasing by about 25%. An increase of only about 5% in the
working-age population in the next 15 years may mean that there will be labor
shortages as the economy grows. Related to this low growth in the working-age
population, an obvious major challenge will be to better incorporate Hispanics
into the developing, high-tech, high-skills, high-education economy.
Ages 65+ – seniors:
There will be an enormous (65%!!) increase in the
population of seniors. If there is a
developing labor shortage, finding methods of keeping seniors at least
partially in the work force (part-time work, phased retirement, etc.) is
another major challenge and opportunity.
There is much discussion of housing shortages in
California, especially in urban areas (Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco,
etc.). One way of looking at the
situation is that the real problem results from the growth in the number of
seniors, who mostly age in place. The
number of working-age families in these urban areas will remain essentially constant.
To take an extreme, if all the seniors moved into retirement homes or downsized
into senior-friendly apartments and condominiums, more than enough conventional
family housing stock would be available for working-age families.
One could envision changes in government policies –
especially tax policies – that would make it more attractive for seniors to
move from their homes to senior-friendly apartments and condominiums. For example, if the profit from selling a
home could be put into a “Capital Gains IRA,” with normal rules for minimum
required distributions, etc., seniors would be more likely to sell their homes
and consequently make homes available for younger families.
To give a (somewhat extreme, but real) anecdote, a
friend of ours owns a house that is worth several million dollars, where she
lived until her husband died. However,
her children live far away from the house, and she currently lives in a
relatively-modest apartment with one of her sons, and rents out her house. Obviously, she does not want to sell the
house and face several hundred thousand dollars in capital gains taxes. If she could have sold the house, put the
proceeds into a “Capital Gains IRA,” and then withdrawn the money over time
(taxed at capital gains rates), she could be living in circumstances more
appropriate to her actual assets. At the
same time, her house would have been available for a normal purchase – albeit
because of the value of the house, not to middle-class purchasers (!!). Although the dollar figures in this example
are extreme, the point remains that government tax and other policies could
encourage seniors to move from their single-family homes into senior-oriented
housing, thereby opening up LOTS of housing for younger families.
Projected California State
Population Change 2015 to 2030 – by Age
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Source: California Department of Finance
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http://www.dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/Demographics/projections/
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Extracted from file P-2
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Age Range
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2015
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2030
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Change
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%Change
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Total
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38,896,969
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44,085,600
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5,188,631
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13
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0-4
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2,512,090
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2,654,422
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142,332
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6
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5-9
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2,533,178
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2,675,758
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142,580
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6
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10-14
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2,516,184
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2,688,622
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172,438
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7
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15-19
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2,633,909
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2,695,183
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61,274
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2
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20-24
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2,899,549
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2,779,149
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-120,400
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-4
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25-29
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2,758,986
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2,708,662
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-50,324
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-2
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30-34
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2,775,349
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2,789,185
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13,836
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0
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35-39
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2,604,103
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3,003,271
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399,168
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15
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40-44
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2,565,505
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2,897,999
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332,494
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13
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45-49
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2,597,743
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2,873,565
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275,822
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11
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50-54
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2,644,323
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2,649,308
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4,985
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0
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55-59
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2,515,511
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2,542,320
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26,809
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1
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60-64
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2,149,977
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2,500,396
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350,419
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16
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65-69
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1,765,119
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2,444,952
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679,833
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39
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70-74
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1,220,608
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2,197,252
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976,644
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80
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75-79
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867,483
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1,720,717
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853,234
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98
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80-84
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627,575
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1,217,020
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589,445
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94
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85-89
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426,173
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645,189
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219,016
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51
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90-94
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217,546
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287,577
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70,031
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32
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95-99
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58,253
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95,791
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37,538
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64
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100+
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7,805
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19,262
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11,457
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147
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Median
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36.5
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40.1
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3.6
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% of 2015
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% of 2030
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% of Total
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Population
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Population
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Change
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0-19
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10,195,361
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26
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10,713,985
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24
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518,624
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5
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10
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20-64
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23,511,046
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60
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24,743,855
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56
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1,232,809
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5
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24
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65+
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5,190,562
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13
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8,627,760
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20
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3,437,198
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66
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66
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Total
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38,896,969
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44,085,600
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5,188,631
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Projected California Population
Change 2015 to 2030 – by Age and Race
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Source: California Department of Finance
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http://www.dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/Demographics/projections/
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Extracted from file P-2
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2015
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2030
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Change
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%Change
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% of Total
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% of 2015
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% of 2030
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Change
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Population
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Population
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Total
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38,896,969
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44,085,600
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5,188,631
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13
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White
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14,972,954
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38
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14,798,858
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34
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-174,096
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-1
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-3
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Black
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2,236,361
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6
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2,356,684
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5
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120,323
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5
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2
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Asian
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5,159,201
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13
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6,149,099
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14
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989,898
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19
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19
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Hispanic
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15,172,006
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39
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18,973,905
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43
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3,801,899
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25
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73
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Two or More
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1,040,869
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3
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1,450,561
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3
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409,692
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39
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8
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Amer Indian
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172,948
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0
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185,093
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0
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12,145
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7
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0
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Hawaii/Pacific
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142,630
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0
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171,400
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0
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28,770
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20
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1
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Ages 0-19
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Total
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10,195,361
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10,713,985
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518,624
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5
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White
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2,779,627
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2,767,393
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-12,234
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0
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Black
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548,715
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524,169
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-24,546
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-4
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Asian
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1,121,531
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1,234,517
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112,986
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10
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Hispanic
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5,205,884
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5,523,989
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318,105
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6
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Two Or More
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463,873
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590,181
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126,308
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27
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Amer Indian
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39,316
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34,677
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-4,639
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-12
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Hawaii/Pacific
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36,415
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39,059
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2,644
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7
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Ages 20-64
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Total
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23,511,046
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24,743,855
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1,232,809
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5
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White
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9,121,765
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7,741,890
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-1,379,875
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-15
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Black
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1,417,354
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1,363,726
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-53,628
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-4
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Asian
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3,291,424
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3,527,867
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236,443
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7
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Hispanic
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8,967,155
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11,179,758
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2,212,603
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25
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Two Or More
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511,958
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721,966
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210,008
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41
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Amer Indian
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108,524
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103,844
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-4,680
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-4
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Hawaii/Pacific
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92,866
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104,804
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11,938
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13
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Ages 65+
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Total
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5,190,562
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8,627,760
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3,437,198
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66
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White
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3,071,562
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4,289,575
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1,218,013
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40
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Black
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270,292
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468,789
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198,497
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73
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Asian
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746,246
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1,386,715
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640,469
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86
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Hispanic
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998,967
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2,270,158
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1,271,191
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127
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Two Or More
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65,038
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138,414
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73,376
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113
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Amer Indian
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25,108
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46,572
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21,464
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85
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Hawaii/Pacific
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13,349
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27,537
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14,188
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106
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